Ulster travel to Dublin on Saturday faced with the daunting task of tackling four-time European Champions Leinster at the Aviva Stadium. 

A formidable task, no doubt, given the two sides’ form. Such is the disparity between the two on paper that the odds-makers have Leinster has even money to win the tournament, whilst Ulster comes in at 100/1. 

Yet, no result is certain when it comes to knockout rugby, particularly a derby clash. 

With five titles between them, there will be no love lost between @UlsterRugby and @leinsterrugby when they meet in the knockout stages of the @ChampionsCup at the Aviva Stadium Dublin 🇮🇪

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— FloRugby (@FloRugby) March 29, 2023

Tale Of The Tape 

Undefeated so far this season, Leinster are the envy of clubs the world over for their seemingly endless production line of talent. 

Never more evident than in last weekend’s United Rugby Championship clash with the reigning champions, DHL Stormers, in Dublin. 

Fielding what was essentially a third-choice squad consisting of fringe starters, seasoned veterans and academy players. Leo Cullen’s side came back from a deep deficit to draw with a close-to-full-strength Stormers side. Combined with their unbeaten run of 19 games beforehand, this result highlights how good this squad is. 

Now set to return several of their Six Nations Grand Slam-winning Irish players, Leinster will again be at their formidable best come Saturday’s 5.30 pm GMT kick-off. 

Despite the challenge facing them, Ulster comes into this weekend’s fixture knowing on their day; they can beat this Leinster side. 

Losing their two previous clashes this season rather narrowly whilst winning both of last season’s match-ups. Speaking of the previous encounter between the two, Ulster raced into a 19-point lead only to completely capitulate and lose to a 14-man Leinster side. 

This loss would send the Belfast side into a nose dive of gargantuan proportions as they would lose five of their next six. Dan McFarland’s side has rebounded, showing their true character, yet are underdogs this weekend. 

McFarland said about the challenge awaiting his team, “It’s the biggest challenge in club rugby in the world, in my opinion. 

“In terms of the team being ready, we had a good Six Nations period. We came out against the Bulls and beat practically a team that beat Leinster in the (URC) semi-final last year. We made a bit of hard going of it early on but came through a very physical encounter. We’re in a pretty good place going into this game. 

“They’ve got a selection from a massive chunk of guys who have just won a Grand Slam, so most people say that it’s unlikely Ulster are going to win, but that’s not how we approach it. 

“We approach it in that’s on us to put in the best performance we possibly can, be as physical as we possibly can and make every moment of the game a contest against them, and if we’re able to do that consistently, then the chips will fall as they’ll fall; we can’t control how they play. 

“We can only influence the game by the way we play, and that’s what we’ll be totally focused on. When we get it right, we’re a very good team, and we’ll need to get it right.” 

Whilst Leinster are rightly the betting favourite, Ulster comes into the game on the back of five wins from the previous six outings. 

Key Match-Up 

In terms of Ireland’s depth at the Hooker position, the clear top four players available to Andy Farrell’s team will be on display this weekend. 

Trotting out for Leinster are the dynamic duo of Dan Sheehan and Belfast-born and raised John McKee, who replaces the injured Ronan Kelleher. 

Facing them are the next two in-line in rock-solid veteran Rob Herring and the try-scoring machine that is 22-year-old Tom Stewart. 

All under the age of 26, Sheehan, Kelleher and Stewart look set to be the top three players in the position for at least the next five seasons and likely beyond. 

Starting with the Leinster duo, both players are immensely dynamic in their approach yet offer an ever so slightly different skill set. 

Starting with 24-year-old phenom Sheehan is the closest iteration to a centre that the front row has seen since South Africa’s Schalk Brits was tearing up defences for Saracens and the Springboks. Scoring tries seemingly at will, Sheehan has risen to the very top of the game over the past twelve months. 

McKee will enter from the bench should all go to plan as he looks to show Ulster what they lost as they let him defect to Leinster. 

Spearheading the Ulster scrum to start will be Herring, who, at the time of writing, is the third choice for the national team following the emergence of the Leinster duo. 

At 32-years-old the South African-born player is a set piece maestro who combines exceptional line-out throwing with strong scrummaging. Not quite the dynamic force of the other three Hookers set to take the pitch, Herring is still no slouch and is a real threat around the fringes and from a rolling maul. 

Finally, the 22-year-old Steward is on the fringes of making the leap to the senior Irish squad, having played for Emerging Ireland twice in 2022. 

Having scored seven tries in his last three games and fourteen in total so far this season, Stewart is putting up numbers that international wingers would be proud of.

Perhaps the closest thing to Dan Sheehan, Stewart will be thrust into action from the bench and could well play a decisive role as a fresh pair of legs against tiring defenders. 

In summary, despite the absence of Kelleher, one would be hard-pressed to find a match-up that has more high-quality Hookers than this one. All four are very real options to feature for Ireland come World Cup time. 

Prediction 

Having met 108 times since 1946, the two provinces have an intimate knowledge of one another. Leading the series 66 – 36 with 6 draws, Leinster will be confident of further skewing the overall series in their favour. 

In fact, outside of last season’s clean sweep, Ulster have won just one clash between the two sides in the last fifteen outings. To find a point in which the Belfast have enjoyed sustained success over their southern rivals, one must go back as far as the 1980’s into the early 90s. Winning nine on the bounce, Ulster would enjoy a period of dominance the likes of which they had in the very early days of the rivalry. 

Since then, it has been all blue as the Dubliners have gone on to dominate both domestically and in Europe. 

Whilst McFarland has stated his side are excited for the challenge, playing Leinster at a packed-out Aviva Stadium in a European knockout game is a mountainous task. 

Returning several of their international stars for the fixture, Leinster will hold of a plucky Ulster side before extending away in the final third as they introduce further quality from the bench. Leinster by 15.

Ulster: Lowry, Baloucoune, Hume, McCloskey, Stockdale, Burns, Doak; Sutherland, Herring, O'Toole, O'Connor, Treadwell, McCann, Timoney, Vermeulen. 

Replacements: Stewart, O'Sullivan, Toomaga-Allen, Sheridan, Rea, Cooney, Moore, Moxham. 

Leinster: Keenan, Larmour, O'Brien, Henshaw, Lowe, Byrne, Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Molony, Ryan, Baird, van der Flier, Conan.

Replacements: McKee, Healy, Ala'alatoa, Jenkins, Penny, McGrath, Byrne, Frawley.