It’s either just about celebration time or desperation time for most Super Rugby Pacific sides at this point in the regular season.

Three months in, the true haves and have nots of the competition have been clearly set. 

With just four matches left to play until next month’s playoffs kick into high gear, there’s much less room for error and much more room to fold under pressure, leaving only those who handle crises more adequately to break through.

Round 12’s fixtures don’t turn down the tension at all. 

There’s a rematch of last season’s final, an unbeaten streak and more than one fixture between clubs whose playoff fates are not certain, needing wins wherever they can get them to save any fading quarterfinal hopes.

With the final weeks of the Super Rugby regular season on the horizon, every kick, movement and try matters. One massive moment – or wrong move – could make the difference between a team playing for a trophy or watching the postseason from home.

Here’s a look at the Super Rugby Pacific matches to watch for in Round 12 of the 2023 season, with numerous fixtures throughout the season (including all listed below) being streamed on FloRugby.

Chiefs Vs. Queensland Reds

The Chiefs’ 2023 joyride has been a blast for those involved and their fans, and the final unbeaten club in Super Rugby has been rewarded with a nine-point lead atop the table, with just four matches left before the playoffs. 

A home playoff fixture already all but locked up – the Chiefs are 13 points clear of the fifth-place Hurricanes – the Hamiltonians can get one step closer to the postseason’s No. 1 seed (and resting key players for a title push) by taking down the Queensland Reds this week, an opponent coach Clayton McMillan’s squad has been highly successful against in recent times with six wins over the Reds in their past seven meetings. 

While the Chiefs are cruising right now with the longest Super Rugby winning streak in club history, Queensland’s situation is a bit more tense. 

The Reds lost a winnable game to an Aussie and playoff rival in the New South Wales Waratahs last week, falling behind in the final 40 minutes, after the score was deadlocked at 17 at halftime. The final score was 32-24. 

Coach Brad Thorn’s side is safe from the chopping block for now in seventh place, but following eighth-place Fijian Drua’s shock of the Hurricanes last week, and numerous teams scrapping for the playoffs in essential toss-up fixtures in the upcoming round, the Reds’ position can go from steady to dire quickly, especially when their next opponent is the best-playing team in the competition. 

Thus, it’s worth seeing if Queensland’s efforts will be more of a team that seems closer to trapped in a corner than worry-free, especially with the pressure amping up, but considering how good the Chiefs have been with an average of 37 points scored per game, the Reds’ attitude coming into the match may not matter.

Western Force Vs. Fijian Drua

Suddenly seeming to be on the downswing following three straight losses, the Drua picked up a massive victory to help its playoff chances. 

They plucked the Hurricanes for a major 27-24 shock in Round 11, bumping Fiji’s Super Rugby team to eighth place and – as of this writing – into the playoffs for the first time in their second season in the league. 

Spoiling a special day for ‘Canes star Julian Savea’s, who crossed over for a pair of tries to tie former Tahs standout Israel Folau as Super Rugby’s all-time leading try scorer, the Drua, backed by an electric home crowd in Suva, had shades of a similar shock in Round 3 against the Crusaders.

Kemu Valetini scored his team’s final points to seal the win in the final minutes against the Hurricanes, just as he did against the four-time defending Super Rugby champions. 

It's the battle of the scrum halves! Issak Fines-Leleiwasa - our Player of the Match for Round 11 is taking on Frank Lomani for this week's Head-2-Head! 🤜 🤛 #altrad pic.twitter.com/H224viCF9n

— Western Force (@westernforce) May 11, 2023

Now off to Perth to play the Western Force for the first time since losing to the Australian side in their inaugural Super Rugby match just over a year ago, the Drua’s second game against their upcoming opponent has much higher stakes.

The Force, looming in 11th place, are just four points back of the Drua, meaning a home win, plus possible bonus points, would possibly see the Force take over the final quarterfinal spot for the time being. 

However, a losing run of six losses in seven matches has seriously jeopardized their qualification chances and left the Force scrambling to pick up the pace soon. A blowout 48-13 loss to the Crusaders last weekend didn’t exactly help matters. 

Nonetheless, they’ll be helped by the fact that the Drua have had woes against Aussie teams since coming into the league, only winning one of their past nine games against foes from the Land Down Under.

Crusaders Vs. Blues

It’s a rematch of last season’s Super Rugby final, the Blues and Crusaders.

But instead of battling near the top of the league table, as they did for much of 2022, they instead are quarreling this year to ensure they even get the right to host quarterfinal matches, as they are third and fourth place in the table, respectively. 

And, as the Blues nearly learned the hard way in Round 11, absolutely nothing is for certain in Super Rugby. 

The Auckland club, even while playing at the fortress that is Eden Park last weekend, almost fell victim to one of the biggest stunners in Super Rugby history.

Winless Moana Pasifika (in last place and on a dismal run of 20 straight defeats dating back to last season) led 30-24 at the full-time siren, before a penalty try was awarded to the Blues in the 83rd minute, letting the 2022 finalists escape by the skin of their teeth. 

If that’s not a wake-up call to the Blues that they can’t take off a matchweek in the competition, even after that dramatic win was their fourth straight, what is? 

Saders week 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oSaL7sITel

— The Blues (@BluesRugbyTeam) May 8, 2023

Well, if they don’t show up against a Crusaders club desperate to continue one of the greatest dynasties in Super Rugby history, that might be one. 

With coach Scott Robertson on his way out the door after the season to take over for Ian Foster as coach of the All Blacks next year, the Crusaders – sans two defeats to the Chiefs and a shock early-season loss to the Drua – have been performing like the great sides of old most weeks, including in its cut-and-dry win over the Force last weekend that saw the hosts score eight tries to the visitor’s one at the Orangetheory Stadium. 

Still, the last time the Blues and Crusaders met in Christchurch (April 2022), it was Leon MacDonald’s team that came out with the victory in a 27-23 thriller, and another road win on Saturday would be the Blues’ first back-to-back away victories against the Crusaders since 1996 and 1998, their first two visits in Super Rugby.