Predicting who will win the Men’s Rugby World Cup is always a tough ask, especially when numerous high-profile teams are in the running. This year there are four genuine contents who all could lift the esteemed trophy – Ireland, France, South Africa and New Zealand.

It would be a huge shock if anyone outside this circle pulls off a miracle and clinches the Webb Ellis trophy. But just because it’s unlikely doesn’t mean it’s impossible.

In truth, this World Cup should be the most competitive to date, with new international eligibility rules coming into play for the very first time. Now that players can change nationality, following a stand-down period of three years from international rugby, the pool of talent across nations is as bright as ever.

With greater competition comes a greater likelihood for shock results, we and we’ll see our fair share in the coming months. Here Flo Rugby takes a look at the three teams set to surprise in France this autumn.  

Tonga 

Tonga have been one of the main beneficiaries of the new international eligibility laws, transforming their backline with the arrival of some extremely talented backs. These include muscle man Malakai Fekitoa, hot-stepper Charles Piutau, sevens star Pita Ahki, versatile playmaker George Moala and the box office, and equally controversial Israel Folau.

The arrival of these players has enlivened the Tonga camp and transformed them overnight into a genuine force to be reckoned with. Whereas before, the nation had physical players who lacked the skill and know-how to break a game open, now they have multiple stars with exceptional skill sets.

That was all on show at the start of July when Tonga took on Australia A, beating them 27-21 following a physically dominant 80 minutes. The achievement was impressive because the Wallabies team they played was stacked with athletes pushing for starting spots in the first team. This wasn’t a secondary outfit, and Tonga still made a meal of their opponents.

Greater challenges lie ahead as Ireland, South Africa, and Scotland await them in their World Cup pool. It’s by far the most competitive group in the competition, and Tonga are not expected to progress by any means. However, they will cause teams problems and could strike a shock win over Scotland, who may crumble when faced with that level of physicality and skill harmonised together.

The brawn of Tonga may even stir the resolve of the Springboks. It feels like Tonga may shock a fair few rugby fans this autumn.

This fierce Quarter-Final needed an @AllBlacks to break the ice 🧊@MunsterRugby's Malakai Fekitoa 👏#BKTURC #URC | #UnitedWeRise | #GLAvMUN pic.twitter.com/feUYT7anFD

— BKT United Rugby Championship (URC) (@URCOfficial) May 6, 2023

Argentina 

Everyone’s been talking about how one-half of the World Cup draw is stacked with title potential, as South Africa, France, Ireland and New Zealand – arguably the four best teams in the world at the moment – are all in the first two pools.

Therefore, a lot of derision has been lodged at England and Australia, who fortunately sit on the other side of the draw. It’s almost been assumed that the two nations will make it through to the semi-finals scot-free, but this assumption overlooks the existence of Los Pumas.

Argentina has a team with enough firepower to override any nation in a standalone fixture. Their backline houses some real firecrackers, including all-around back three maestro Emiliano Boffelli, the effortlessly cool Santiago Carreras and the unstoppable Mateo Carreras.

Los Pumas are also known for having a ferocious pack, with Juan Martín González and Pablo Matera gracing the back row. They’re almost spoilt for riches. Both men are incredibly physical ball carriers and even better defenders, matching the exploits of team captain Julián Montoya who is passion personified.

With these men in office, Argentina is right in the mix and could be poised to top their group if they repeat last year's exploits and beat England again. Back in November, Los Pumas shocked the rugby world by besting England 30-29 at Twickenham, and they could be set to match that result a year on.

Cheika and Matera are clearly at the races today in terms of emotions 👀#RugbyChampionship #AUSvsARG #TRC2023 pic.twitter.com/jy6DrtHvA6

— Philip Bendon (@PBendon) July 15, 2023

Fiji 

Fijian rugby is known for its flair. The prevalence of sevens players within the island community is huge, and over the years, that has created a whole host of athletes with unstoppable engines and even more audacious ball skills.

In short, if you want to watch fast rugby with outrageous offloads, Fiji is your port of call.

However, the nation has at times struggled to transfer that penchant for sevens into success in fifteens.

But now the squad is dripping with star names. In the backline, you have a potential centre partnership of the colossal Josua Tuisova and the supremely skilled Semi Radradra. That’s one of the outright best partnerships in international rugby.

If you add in the likes of Jiuta Wainiqolo, Toulon's 25-year-old star winger, young Fijian Drua hooker Tevita Ikanivere, veteran second-row Api Ratuniyarawa and the world-class exploits of La Rochelle’s Levani Botia, you have a squad that can really cause damage.

Anyone in doubt over Fiji’s chances should also cast an eye on their World Cup pool. It includes Wales and Australia, two of the most out-of-form nations in rugby at the minute. Consequently, there’s a real chance for Fiji not just to win the odd game, but actually qualify for the knockouts for the first time since 2007.

Give the ball to Josua Tuisova and he'll do the rest. #PNC2019 pic.twitter.com/bGtYs98tBu

— World Rugby (@WorldRugby) August 4, 2019