History beckons for two of international rugby’s top teams,  as world No. 1-ranked Ireland faces three-time world champion New Zealand on Saturday evening. 

As the clock strikes 21.00, all of the talks will come to a standstill, and the two teams, which have it all to prove, will take center stage.

Unlike perhaps any quarterfinal before, the analysis, debate and hype surrounding this fixture have hit a fever pitch more often reserved for a final. 

Of course, as with any winner-take-all-all showdown, the consequences of a loss are unfathomable for either side. 

Tale Of The Tape

On one hand, the ruthlessly efficient Ireland side that has won its past 17 fixtures enters this quarterfinal in unchartered territory. Never before has a team from the Emerald Isle been so deserving of the "favorites" tag. 

Conquering the All Blacks in their own backyard would prove to be the catalyst for this team, which secured a monumental 2-1 series victory in the land of the long white cloud. Their mental fortitude to take the series made this feat all the more impressive, having fallen behind 1-0, following what was - on the scoreboard, at least - a drubbing in the opening test. 

Since then, Ireland has won every test, including a Six Nations Grand Slam title in front of its home crowd on St. Patrick's weekend. Throw in an undefeated Autumn Nations Series in between these two achievements, and one gets a full picture of a team that has proven its ability to transition from challenge to challenge. 

On the other side of the cover, New Zealand, a nation so accustomed to its team obliterating all before it, has been on a journey more akin to the one Irish Rugby historically has followed. 

The home-series loss in June 2022 was backed up by a heavy loss to the Springboks in Round 1 of the Rugby Championship and a historic home loss to Argentina in Christchurch. 

Headlining both losses was a total capitulation in the discipline stakes, coughing up six penalties to Los Pumas marksman goal kicker Emiliano Boffelli. Yet, despite both of these losses, the All Blacks did what the All Blacks do and came back to beat both opponents in the respective return fixtures, comprehensively. 

Continuing this yo-yo trend, the All Blacks would be saved from what, in all reality, should have been a loss to the Wallabies in Round 5 of that tournament. 

The Bled is coming home 🖤#BledisloeCup pic.twitter.com/w8qLQBLB1Y

— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) July 29, 2023

Saving their blushes was a rather left-field, but correct, decision by referee Mathieu Raynal to penalize Wallabies fly-half Bernard Foley for wasting time. Setting up a scrum five meters out from the Australian line, the All Blacks would seal the deal, with Jordie Barrett barging over for the game-winner. 

While not a loss, the All Blacks clearly took umbrage with the result, treating it as a defeat to rebound with a 40-14 thumping of the same opposition a week later. 

Despite this up-and-down nature, the All Blacks locked up yet another Rugby Championship in 2022, leaving the tournament with several points to ponder. 

Since then, two wins in the 2022 November series had Kiwi fans rejoicing that their team was firmly back on top. This was until a complete capitulation at Twickenham saw them slip to a 25-all draw with England. Having taken a commanding 25-6 lead, just how Ian Foster’s team let slip that lead remains a mystery. 

Ending the season with eight wins, two losses and a draw would be a positive return for the majority of teams, but for the All Blacks, this signaled a crisis. 

Such was the uproar at the perceived lack of performance that Foster was informed that Crusaders head coach Scott Robertson would be taking the mantle at the conclusion of this year’s Rugby World Cup. 

A final thank you from the man himself ❤️

Crusaders #26 always. pic.twitter.com/XEwHQdeYGo

— Crusaders (@crusadersrugby) July 27, 2023

In the interim, a shift in the coaching staff saw former Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt come in on a full-time basis, having initially come on board as a selector, as well as Crusaders forwards coach Jason Ryan coming in to occupy the same role in the national setup. 

Since then, the All Blacks have completed an undefeated shortened Rugby Championship campaign to secure a fourth consecutive title. 

Seemingly back on a stable grounding, the Kiwis traveled north brimming with confidence to face the Springboks in a pre-World Cup exhibition match at Twickenham Stadium in London. 

What unfolded was a record defeat at the hands of the Boks in a match where New Zealand simply was not competitive, falling 35-7. 

Putting the result down to fatigue from the long trip north appears to be the general consensus for what appeared to be an “aberration” for a team that had grown more accustomed to “aberrations.” 

Yet, two weeks later, a 27-13 loss to Rugby World Cup host France would hand the All Blacks the first pool-stage loss in their history at the game’s global tournament. 

On that night, the All Blacks were competitive for 50 minutes but, in a mirror reflection of their loss to the Springboks a fortnight earlier, could not gain parity in the physicality stakes. 

World Cup Form 

Since that opening-round loss, Foster’s side has had an opportunity to breathe in what would prove to be three cupcake fixtures against Namibia, Italy and Uruguay, racking up 240 points, while conceding just 20 for an average score of 80-6. 

Putting a positive spin on these results, the All Blacks were afforded the opportunity to rotate their squad a bit to trial combinations, plays and tactics. Yet, deep down, the question many have is, were these fixtures a true test ahead of what will be a titanic struggle Saturday? 

These results reaffirmed that, unlike any other team in World Rugby, if the All Blacks are given an inch, they will take a mile, as they simply shredded their opponents. 

However, this Saturday, they will face an infinitely sterner challenge against a team that has held Romania, Tonga, Scotland and South Africa to a combined 46 points, scoring 190 of its own. 

Key Matchup 

Across the board, there is little to pick between the two sides. However, one area where Ireland possibly holds the clearest advantage is in the tight five and, in particular, the front row.

The key to the Irish success has been a rock-solid set piece and the ability of its forwards to be equally comfortable in ball-playing positions. 

In the front row, Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong are as good as any trio in the world today, while the second row combination of Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne proved against Scotland their ability to seamlessly run the line-out and dominate the ruck space. 

New Zealand, while certainly no pushover, has had moments of being exposed by the likes of Ireland, France and South Africa in recent outings, lacking that bit of bite for which Kiwi teams of the past were renowned. 

The return of Tyrell Lomax is a significant boost, as is the return of Ethan de Groot. Questions remain around Lomax’s fitness, which could prove to be a major setback for the All Blacks, if he were to exit early. 

In the second row, Brodie Retallick remains a classy operator but is just a tick off his best, while Scott Barrett simply is an athletic freak. Thus, their clash with Henderson and Beirne is worth the admission alone. 

Your team for the quarterfinal! 🖤#AllBlacks pic.twitter.com/zqqLSMqPDk

— All Blacks (@AllBlacks) October 12, 2023

Prediction 

Despite this record, Ireland will be under no illusions as to just how capable the All Blacks are at racking up points in a hurry. Looking back to their last loss, the 42-19 drubbing in the opening test of the 2022 series, Andy Farrell’s team will be hyper-aware of the need to hit its defensive targets. 

Throw into the mix the fact that this All Blacks team is significantly different to the one that trotted out in the 2022 series, and the picture gets murkier. 

Yet, for all of the improvements the All Blacks have made, Ireland also has improved since 2022, thus setting the stage for all the makings of an all-time classic. 

Ireland deservedly enters the match as the bookies' favorite, yet in reality, there is little to pick between the two sides for a multitude of reasons. 

For Ireland, the question of whether it can get past a quarterfinal looms large, if not with the team, then certainly amongst the supporters, while for the All Blacks, a loss would make this statistically the least successful All Blacks team of all-time. 

With so much on the line, it is fair to suggest that both sides enter with, by and large, an equal level of pressure. 

Given the consistency Ireland has shown over the past 24 months and, more crucially, its ability to morph from game to game depending on the opposition, this will be the time for the Irish to shine in what will be an uncomfortably close fixture. Ireland by four points.

Captain’s Run in Paris! ✅#TeamOfUs pic.twitter.com/9CRolOtvEA

— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) October 13, 2023

Team Lineups 

Ireland

15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Johnny Sexton (c), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter

Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Jimmy O’Brien 

New Zealand

15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot

Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Dalton Papali’i, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown

Match Details 

Date: Saturday, Oct. 14
Venue: Stade de France, Saint-Denis
Kickoff: 21:00 local (20:00 BST, 19:00 GMT)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (England), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Tom Foley (England)