PREVIEW | Rassie's Boks Looking To Blunt Razor's All Blacks At Ellis Park
PREVIEW | Rassie's Boks Looking To Blunt Razor's All Blacks At Ellis Park
The South Africa's Springboks host New Zealand's All Blacks in Round 3 of the 2024 Rugby Championship at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, South Africa.
The Manchester Derby, Boston Red Sox versus New York Yankees and the Springboks vs the All Blacks, feverish rivalries built over decades of tense battles on their respective sports’ grandest stages.
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Renewing their rivalry this weekend in the first of back-to-back tests, the Boks and the All Blacks will meet for the first time since South Africa’s one-point victory in last year’s Rugby World Cup final.
The Lowdown
Since then, both sides have undergone significant changes in personnel and philosophy.
Starting at the top, the All Blacks have ushered in a new era with a clean break from a coaching staff that dates back to 2004, with Scott ‘Razor’ Robertson taking over from Ian Foster as head coach.
Despite being in its infancy, the current All-Black setup has endured somewhat of a tumultuous run. Enduring a sizeable home loss to Argentina in Round 1 of The Rugby Championship before the shock resignation of assistant coach Leon MacDonald before the team’s departure to South Africa, the All Blacks are in a state of flux unlike at any other point over the past 20 years.
On the other side of the picket fence, the world champions saw their head coach depart for pastures, as Jacques Nienaber joined Irish powerhouse Leinster.
In any other scenario, this would have been a significant blow; however, in the case of the Boks, it simply meant an in-house rearrangement. Shifting back into the hot seat, which he never departed, Rassie Erasmus once again is the head coach.
Joining Erasmus is a cohort of exceptional coaches, namely attack coach Tony Brown and defense coach Jerry Flannery, who replaced his former Munster teammate Felix Jones.
While the results for both sides have been nigh-on identical, the manner in which the two sides functioned has been on opposite ends of the spectrum.
South Africa, which lost one test in 2024 to a red-hot Ireland team during their two-test series in July, has been operating at the highest level. This drawn series was followed by a routine win over Portugal in Bloemfontein, before back-to-back wins over the Wallabies in Australia, all the while rotating their full squad.
Razor’s All Blacks overcame England in two tightly contested tests during their July window before smashing through Fiji in San Diego. Dipping below their own high standards as Argentina roundly beat them in Round 1 was a wake-up call that this All Blacks team simply cannot turn up and win, as was the case during the 2010s.
Recovering in Round 2 to extend their outlandish undefeated run at Eden Park in Auckland to 50 games was unsurprising and reminded the All Blacks that they rarely lose two games in a row.
While the result got their campaign back on track, the question heading into their tests with the world champions is ‘did the Argentina test paper over the cracks?’ which is a worrying prospect for the men in black.
Team News
Clearly, Razor is feeling the pinch in what is the first major piece of criticism he has felt in close to a decade following his unrivalled run as the Crusaders head coach. Reacting in kind, Robertson has recalled his most experienced operators, including former captain Sam Cane, for the South African mission.
Joining Cane in the starting lineup are 11 other players with 30 or more caps. Nine have more than 50.
None of the 50-plus capped players face more pressure and scrutiny than fly-half Damian McKenzie.
Closing in on his 30th birthday and following eight years in the All Blacks setup, the Chiefs magician finally is enjoying an extended run in the No. 10 shirt. To date, there have been mixed reviews about the attacking-minded McKenzie, who came in for heavy criticism following the defeat to Los Pumas.
Now, staring down the precipice of arguably Rugby’s most challenging scenario of facing the Boks at Ellis Park, it is time for McKenzie to either sink or swim.
At a shade under 80kg, the brave but diminutive playmaker will face a barrage of big ball carriers for 80 minutes. He will not only need to front up defensively, he'll need to be brave when taking the ball to the line, with head-hunting Boks lurking on every corner.
While McKenzie will no doubt be the focal point of the All Blacks attack, the Barrett brothers outside him in Jordie and Beauden offer the Kiwis two other highly intelligent distributors. These three-headed attacks were a key reason the All Blacks got past England, with Beadeun’s performance in the second test proving to be the difference between the two sides.
Knowing that physically, they cannot overpower their hosts, this trio will need to be on the money with their deep box of kicking tricks. Pinpointing where the exceptional yet diminutive Bok wingers are isolated with high kicks could prove to be a sweet spot for Robertson’s men to attack.
Facing the All Blacks is a Springboks squad, that despite being littered with World Cup winners, has several fresh faces in key places.
None more so than at fly-half, where the immensely impressive Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu will face a challenge unlike any other in his previous five tests to date. Despite being in the infancy of his career, the Stormers star already has proven to have test match temperament, yet the All Blacks no doubt will see if he has a ‘big’ match temperament.
Elsewhere, fullback Apehelele Fassi is another player who is sitting in the hot seat for what is far and away his greatest test to date.
Having flashed with moments of brilliance throughout his career, the five times capped Sharks flyer has lacked the consistency to take hold of a spot in the Boks squad for any meaningful length of time. Now 26 years old and with incumbents Willie Le Roux and Damian Willemse unavailable through injury, the electric attacking mind Fassi needs a big-time showing to become the man in possession of the shirt.
In the pack, backrow Ben-Jason Dixon has already garnered similarities to arguably the best player in the Boks squad in Pieter-Steph Du Toit, who shifts into the secondrow to mitigate the Boks’ mini-injury crisis in the engine room.
Mirroring Fassi, Dixon, at 26 years old, is at the point where he should be making the jersey his own or, at the very least, challenge PSDT for the role.
Staring down the experience of the All Blacks back row, the rangy Stormers flank will play a key role in attacking the wider channels of the visitors. In addition to this, he will need to ensure that his ‘grunt work’ around the breakdown and set piece is on point.
Prediction
On paper, there should only be one winner, as the back-to-back world champions, along with Ireland, appear to be a step ahead of the rest at the present moment. Yet, in rugby’s greatest rivalry, the All Blacks hold a firm advantage and will be undaunted by the challenge that lays ahead.
Anyone who has tracked the All Blacks will know that an underestimated All Black is a dangerous All Black, a fact Erasmus no doubt will have drilled into his charges over the past fortnight.
For all of the discussion of the All Blacks demise over the past 12 months, they still only came up a point short having spent a large portion of the World Cup final a man down against the Springboks. This, combined with Ireland proving that if you challenge the Boks physically and are willing to go into the belly of the beast (through their rush defense), then this South African side remain beatable.
The flip side to this argument is that this South African side understands that to be considered the greatest team of all time, a Rugby Championship title combined with a clean sweep of their biggest rivals is non-negotiable.
Unlike their rivals, who went back-to-back in 2011 and 2015, the Springboks are yet to show an ability to be consistently exceptional in between World Cups, which, despite many South African's protestations, is key for the rest of the world to acknowledge them as all-time greats.
Taking this into account as well as the fact that the All Blacks are yet to truly find their identity, the Boks will take the first test by a margin of six points. South Africa by six.
Team Lineups
Springboks
15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Handre Pollard
All Blacks
15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Mark Tele’a
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