Twenty-one years removed from their last Bledisloe Cup series victory, Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies will host Scott Robertson’s All Blacks in one of the more intriguing series in recent years.

Entering the contest, both sides will be licking their wounds following disappointing round four match-ups.

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For the Wallabies, a one-point victory in round three has all but been forgotten following a shellacking at the hands of Los Pumas in round four. Conceding a record defeat by a margin of 67 – 27, the Wallabies did what few Australian teams have done in the past as they threw in the towel.

Despite leading at half-time, the Wallabies shut up shop with twenty minutes to play and allowed their hosts to splinter their defensive line at will.

Across the Atlantic, the All Blacks departed their brutally physical two-test series with the Springboks empty-handed. Back-to-back losses relegated them to a fourth consecutive defeat against their bitter rivals for the first time since the 1940s.

Beginning their whistle stop tour of the republic with the bombshell news that assistant coach Leon MacDonald would be departing his role with immediate effect citing ‘philosophical differences’ with head coach Robertson, the All Blacks were on the backfoot from the off.

Rarely have the men in black led back-to-back fixtures at half-time only to go on and lose them. Departing from their bend but don’t break strategy in defence, the All Blacks simply had no answer for the Springbok's power.

Thus, entering round one of the 2024 Bledisloe series, having both lost to the Springboks twice and Los Pumas once, there is a level of uncertainty in the Antipodean rugby sphere unlike any we have seen before.

Team News 

The All Blacks have made four changes to their starting line-up for the match against the Wallabies in Sydney, along with two adjustments to the reserves.

In the forwards, Ethan de Groot returns from a neck injury to start at loosehead prop, while Pasilio Tosi is set to play his second All Blacks test after making his debut off the bench against Fiji in San Diego earlier this season.

In the backs, the starting trio that generated strong attacking momentum against the Springboks in Johannesburg and Argentina in their second test is back. Caleb Clarke returns from a back injury to start on the left wing, with Will Jordan on the right wing and Beauden Barrett at fullback.

Prop James Slipper will become the most capped Wallabies player in history when he earns his 140th Test cap against the All Blacks on Saturday.

The experienced front-rower has been named on the bench for Australia’s Bledisloe Cup and Rugby Championship clash with New Zealand, as head coach Joe Schmidt makes several changes and welcomes two key players from injury. In the backs, Hunter Paisami returns to the starting line-up after recovering from a knee injury that kept him out of the two Argentina tests. He joins Len Ikitau in the centre pairing.

Schmidt has also reshuffled the Wallabies' backline, with Nic White and Noah Lolesio taking over as the starting halfback and flyhalf. They replace Jake Gordon and Ben Donaldson, who were both omitted from the matchday 23.

Tom Wright returns from an ankle injury to start at fullback, while Andrew Kellaway moves to the wing instead of Max Jorgensen, and Marika Koroibete keeps his spot on the left wing in the number 11 jersey.

In the forward pack, Fraser McReight makes his first appearance of the 2024 Rugby Championship after impressing in the July internationals. The flanker replaces Carlo Tizzano at openside, having overcome injury troubles. Rob Valetini and Harry Wilson remain at blindside and number eight, with Wilson again captaining the side.

Keys Match-Up

Given the significant number of new faces on both sides this season, several intriguing matchups will be key to this weekend’s fixture.

Taking into account the profile of the two teams and their desire to play up-tempo rugby the battle at the breakdown is going to be huge this weekend.

Recalling the best exponent available to them in this area, Schmidt has brought back Reds backrow Fraser McReight following his return from injury.

The 25-year-old replaces the highly impressive Carlo Tizzano, who dropped out of the squad and will link up with the powerful ball-carrying pair of Harry Wilson and Rob Valetini.

Going head-to-head with this trio are a the well-balanced backrow of Ardie Savea, Sam Cane and Wallace Sititi. This trio are all strong at the breakdown in their own right, but Savea, in particular, has been highly effective in this department. Capitalising on the hard-hitting nature of Sititi and Cane beside him, Savea’s ability to cover ground in a hurry sees him get to breakdowns a notch quicker than more of his opponents. This is where the Wallabies will be hoping McReight can match Savea.

Whilst McReight’s ascension to the starting line-up is completely understandable, the dropping of Tizzano came somewhat as a shock. Smashing opponents into oblivion, the backrow was his team’s top tackler with 57 through the opening four rounds. At the breakdown, his physicality and timing were good, albeit McReight holds the edge in this area. Thus, his dropping out of the 23 as a whole feels like a rotational policy move more so than a performance shift.

Away from the breakdown, the dynamic carrying abilities of Rob Valetini and Wallace Sititi will make for a bone-crunchingly interesting head-to-head with both players operating as their team’s gainline-busting kingpins.

When completing the contest, the work rate and intelligence of skipper Harry Wilson inspire his teammates, while Sam Cane fulfils a similar role for the All Blacks.

Prediction 

On paper there is only winner here, whilst the two teams have the same record thus far in the championship, they have played two different sports.

For the All Blacks, back-to-back losses to the Springboks will sting as will their blitzing at the hands of Los Pumas in round one. Yet in all three contests, the All Blacks held the lead and had a chance to claim victory.

On the flip side, outside of their win over Argentina in round three, the Wallabies were miles off the pace.

Certainly, an argument can be made that they could’ve swept Argentina, but the fact that they completely capitulated in the second half left many people shell-shocked at just how wrong things can go in an instant.

Against the Springboks, Schmidt’s men were nowhere near getting a result in either fixture and simply looked outgunned.

Making an argument for an Australian win is challenging, to say the least, but Schmidt has a cerebral coach who will have dissected every second of action thus far with a fine-tooth comb.

Shifting his squad around, Schmidt is putting out a team that looks about as well balanced as possible, i.e., without their international-based players. If they can hold on physically, then they will certainly give themselves a chance to spring a major upset.

As fun as it would be to tip the Wallabies this week, it is just too much of a stretch to see them pulling off the upset. All Blacks by 10.

Line-Ups

New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Sevu Reece

Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Harry Wilson (c), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell

Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tom Lynagh, 23 Dylan Pietsch

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