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Investec Champions Cup: Key Round 4 Talking Points & Predictions

Investec Champions Cup: Key Round 4 Talking Points & Predictions

Dive into Round 4 of the Investec Champions Cup, as Bordeaux chases top seeding, South African teams fight for survival and key playoff scenarios unfold.

Jan 17, 2025 by Philip Bendon

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‘We're leaving together, but still, it's farewell, and maybe we'll come back to Earth, who can tell?’ – Europe

Who would’ve thought in 2025 that the famous 1980s riff from Europe would sum up Round 4 of the Investec Champions Cup, but here we are. 

Heading into the key round that will decide who goes where in the knockout stages, all of the cards remain on the table for the bulk of the competing teams.

From current log lead Bordeaux, right through to the winless Ulster, their playoff fates remains firmly in the balance. 

This trend of intertwined results runs deep across the competition, with several teams requiring wins and some help to get through to the Round of 16.

For those who miss out, a Challenge Cup future awaits, but given the quality of teams at that level, there is no guarantee of teams simply swooping through a final at that level either. 

Away from the club permutations, the Guinness Six Nations is fast coming into focus, with the national coaches of the respective nations no doubt hyper-focused on how their players perform this weekend.

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With so much on the line, here are four key talking points heading into the Round 4 action:

Far-Reaching Wine Region Effects

For Bordeaux, a bonus-point win over what is expected to be a heavily rotated Hollywoodbets Sharks side will secure top seeding and, with it, a home run through to the semifinals and, crucially, the avoidance of their kryptonite side Toulouse.

Cheering them on from Belfast will be Richie Murphy’s band of merry men, who, almost unbelievably, still could qualify with a bonus-point win over Exeter. This result, combined with a Bordeaux win that so drastically wrecks the Sharks' points difference, could send the Durban side packing.

Taking into consideration that Bordeaux’s average score through three rounds is 50-21, this margin of victory would see the Sharks end with a negative points difference of 62. 

Ulster, which is on a negative difference of 89, therefore would need a winning margin of 28 to overtake its URC rivals. 

Add into the mix that a rotated Bordeaux side beat Exeter 69-17 in Round 3, and this permutation suddenly feels far less far-fetched than one would imagine.

Home Run On The Line

Building on the above point, Bordeaux certainly will back itself to secure the necessary log points and will be thanking its lucky stars that it was Toulouse, and not them, who had to make the trip to Durban this season. 

In Pool 2, Leinster sent out a statement with a two-point victory over La Rochelle in Round 3.

Investec Champions Cup | Round 4 Preview

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This victory showcased the previously flashy south Dubliners' transition into a Springbok-esq defensive behemoth, which is complete. 

Concerningly for other would-be title contenders, the men in blue have yet to fully click offensively, as their lone four-try bonus point attests to. This aspect of their game, one feels, certainly will develop as the season progresses, offering a sense that, unlike previous seasons, they will be peaking at just the right time.

One notch behind this pairing, Toulouse, which arguably has been the most impressive team thus far this season, will rue their uncharacteristic errors in the Durban sun, which cost them a winning bonus point. 

Should Bordeaux do as many expect, that will and win with a bonus point this weekend, the reigning champions will be on the road for a potential semifinal meeting with Leinster. 

Of course, they will back themselves to deliver, but certainly, they would’ve preferred to face their Irish rivals for all the marbles in a final.

Away from the big three, RC Toulon, the Glasgow Warriors, Munster Rugby, Northampton Saints and Saracens all feel destined for a shootout for that last semifinal spot.

Pool 3 Melting Pot

Holding the cards of the ‘next-best’ at the moment are the undefeated men from Toulon, who travel to Manchester to face the infuriatingly inconsistent Sale Sharks.

Shipping 40 points in the Cape Town heat, the Sharks looked like a beaten outfit as the clock ticked into the red. Yet, Alex Sanderson’s side will be all too aware that a win over Toulon will keep their hopes alive, with Harlequins hosting the Warriors, and the Stormers traveling to Paris to take on Racing 92.

In short, Pool 4 has a host of permutations, with just one certainty being the progression of Toulon and Glasgow to the next round.

‘Compromised’ South African Franchises: Time To Put Up Or Shut Up

Speaking of the South African sides in this year’s competition, they have been nothing short of disappointing outside of the Stormers' victory over Sale, and the Sharks' downing Exeter.

It could be argued that the Sharks vs. Toulouse match was an example of what is possible for the South African sides in this competition. Pushing the reigning champions, an injury-struck Sharks outfit looked good at points, yet in reality, they never really were in a position to win the fixture.

Despite this, the atmosphere at Kings Park was fantastic and was buoyed by the attendance of the game’s best talent, Antoine Dupont, who utterly dominated proceedings.

Touching on this point, while leaning into a perceived lack of parity for the South African sides, was former Springboks backrow Bob Skinstad.

Speaking to SportsBoom, Skinstad, who is a part owner of French second division side AS Beziers Herault, mentioned that he felt South Africa could offer more to the competition if they were given more.

“It can be incredibly frustrating, especially if we don’t have an agreed global season," Skinstad said. "Can you imagine if you are one of the commercial managers of the teams and the Sharks or someone who can’t host fixtures? Toulouse going to Durban was fantastic. 

“Look, last week’s fixture was a loss for the Sharks, but I mean, for the fans to see some of the best players in the world coming from France, it’s the first time Antoine Dupont has been to South Africa in a while.

“South African teams participating in European rugby is a good thing, it’s good for South Africa and Europe. I have said it numerous times, and I am not going to change my opinion.

“Until we repair the scheduling, South African teams will be at a disadvantage, we have further to travel for away games… it’s just difficult.

“We also have the Currie Cup, which is happening almost at the same time. So, the sides have to divide their resources with the different competitions. Then compounding that with the scheduling, which is done to the advantage of the northern hemisphere teams for the Champions Cup.

“I want us to play in the Champions Cup, but I am not a fan of the [South African] teams bowing to the fact that the scheduling needs to happen in a certain manner. They have been compromised more than anyone else.”

Of course, Skinstad is uniquely positioned to discuss this matter given his innate understanding of the rugby landscape both sides of the hemisphere.

Countering this call for parity, however, is the simple matter of geography, which immediately puts the South African sides at a disadvantage. 

Similar to their time in Super Rugby, the South African sides inevitably will bear the brunt of travel, with the bulk of their opponents based thousands of kilometers away. This, combined with a mixed-at-best reaction to their addition from European fans, likely will mean that Skinstad’s comments will garner limited sympathy. 

Despite this, even the most die-hard Champions Cup fan can see the potential the South Africans could bring to this competition.

The first step in gaining real legitimacy in this competition starts this weekend, with the Sharks and Stormers requiring bonus-point victories to stay alive in the competition.

Investec Champions Cup Fixtures In Round 4 - Predictions

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