Ireland Seeks Redemption, Italy Looks To End Six Nations On A High
Ireland Seeks Redemption, Italy Looks To End Six Nations On A High
Ireland seeks redemption after its Six Nations loss to France, while Italy aims to end on a high. Key matchups, stats and predictions for Super Saturday.
Scottish-born inventor Alexander Graham Bell was spot on when he said, “When one door closes, another door opens; but we often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door that we do not see the ones which open for us.”
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For Irish Rugby, the chance of securing a second Six Nations Grand Slam in three years went up in flames when France defeated Simon Easterby’s side at the Aviva Stadium in Round 4.
As always is the case with a significant loss, the hysteria surrounding Ireland’s defeat offered a key snapshot into the fickle nature of professional sport. In reality, the sky is not falling for Irish Rugby; rather, the squad simply fell short of the level required to overcome what quite possibly is the best French team of the professional era.
However, the loss to Les Bleus did expose some concerning patterns that have emerged in Ireland’s four significant defeats over the past two years.
Holding a clear edge in possession and territory, Ireland failed to turn the advantage into points. Time and again, the Irish were met at the gainline by a well-organized French side that purposefully avoided overcommitting at the breakdown. Ireland simply could not create space in the French defense.
Adding to their struggles, the Irish lineout’s overly conservative approach further limited their attacking options, even though the stat line may not fully reflect its impact.
On the other side, Italy enters this fixture in a frustratingly familiar position.
They claimed a solid win against Wales and put together three positive halves against Scotland, France and England. Yet, they will feel they should have more points on the table heading into Round 5. Instead, basic defensive errors have cost them dearly - missed tackles and an inability to sustain effort beyond the 50-minute mark have left them ruing what might have been.
For both teams, Super Saturday’s opening fixture presents an opportunity to set things right. Rather than dwelling on what could have been, they will know that a win changes the complexion of their campaign.
Team News
Starting with the home side, head coach Gonzalo Quesada has made several changes to his starting XV.
The most significant adjustments come in the scrum, where Manuel Zuliani replaces captain Michele Lamaro, with leadership duties shifting to Juan Ignacio Brex.
Zuliani joins Sebastian Negri and Lorenzo Cannone in the back row, while Dino Lamb returns to the second row alongside Federico Ruzza. In the front row, only Danilo Fischetti retains his place, with Simone Ferrari and Gianmarco Lucchesi coming in.
At halfback, Martin Page-Relo starts ahead of Stephen Varney, linking with Paolo Garbisi, while the midfield remains unchanged.
Tommaso Allan returns at fullback, shifting Ange Capuozzo to the wing alongside Monty Ioane.
On the bench, Italy opts for a 6-2 split, with Leonardo Marin making his tournament debut among the backs and Lamaro and Ross Vintcent included among the forward replacements.
For the visitors, Easterby has made key changes to his matchday squad as they look to keep their hopes of a third consecutive title alive.
Caelan Doris once again captains the side, while Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray prepare for their final Ireland appearances from the bench. Jack Conan comes in at blindside flanker, with the rest of the forward pack unchanged.
The biggest talking point is Jack Crowley starting at fly-half for the first time this Championship, partnering with Jamison Gibson-Park. In the midfield, Robbie Henshaw starts alongside Garry Ringrose, who returns from suspension.
In the back three, Hugo Keenan, James Lowe and Mack Hansen renew their partnership, with both wingers missing the clash with France due to injury.
Tadhg Furlong returns from injury and joins O’Mahony, Murray, Sam Prendergast and Bundee Aki on the bench.
Easterby has emphasized the squad’s focus on bouncing back from last week’s performance, acknowledging the challenge Italy poses, while expressing confidence in his team’s determination to end the campaign on a high.
Key Stats
Historically, Ireland has dominated this fixture, winning 24 of their 25 Six Nations meetings, with Italy’s only victory coming in 2013.
Since then, Ireland has won 11 straight encounters, averaging 6.5 tries per game and a 34-point winning margin. The team's last trip to Rome resulted in a commanding 36-0 victory.
Ireland has won seven of its last eight Six Nations away games but has lost its last two Round 5 away fixtures.
Italy, meanwhile, has suffered back-to-back defeats after an encouraging start, but a win here would see the Italians claim multiple victories in consecutive Championships for the first time since 2013.
Defensively, Italy leads the tournament in dominant tackles (66) and turnover-winning tackles (12), while Ireland ranks last in both.
Ireland has been the most effective at retaining possession from kicks (19%) and has made more 50-22 kicks (3) than all other teams combined.
Individually, Dan Sheehan has become the first forward in Six Nations history to score 10 tries, while Italy’s Sebastian Negri (67 tackles) and Tommaso Menoncello (most dominant tackles by a back) have been key defensive figures.
Jack Conan, with three tries in as many games, will look to continue his scoring streak, having also crossed against Italy last year.
Key Matchup: Crowley Vs. Garbisi
One of the most intriguing battles will be between the fly-halves: 24-year-old Paolo Garbisi and 25-year-old Jack Crowley.
Garbisi has been Italy’s undisputed fly-half since making his debut in 2020, winning 46 caps to date. Crowley, on the other hand, has won just 23 caps, largely due to Johnny Sexton being the first-choice 10 when he debuted in 2022.
Despite this, Crowley already has won two Guinness Six Nations titles, including leading Ireland to victory last season. At the club level, the Munster fly-half guided his province to the URC title in 2022/23, their first since 2011.
Venice-born Garbisi has spent the last four seasons in France’s Top 14, winning the league with Montpellier in 2022, before joining Toulon this season. While he has played a crucial role in Italy's progress, silverware has remained elusive.
When they last met, Crowley scored the opening try in Ireland’s dominant 36-0 victory over Italy in Dublin.
Meanwhile, Garbisi was controversially denied a game-winning opportunity against France due to an officiating error that allowed French players to advance before he kicked.
Physically, both are similar in stature, with Garbisi standing at 6-foot and 89kg, while Crowley is slightly taller at 6-foot-1 and 91kg. Stylistically, Garbisi plays as a distributing playmaker, whereas Crowley is more confident in attacking the defensive line.
Prediction
Italy has beaten Ireland just once in Six Nations history and now faces an Irish side desperate to respond after a heavy loss to France.
Easterby’s team knows that a bonus-point win is non-negotiable if they want to claim the Six Nations title. To do so, they must rectify their red-zone issues and convert possession into points.
Italy may keep things competitive in the first half, but Ireland’s returning stars and superior power off the bench should prove too much. Expect the men in green to finish their campaign with a statement victory. Prediction: Ireland by 30+.
Team Rosters
Italy
15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (c), 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Joshua Zilocchi, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Michele Lamaro, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Leonardo Marin
Ireland
15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Jack Conan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Bundee Aki
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