A Date With Destiny | Now Or Never For Leinster Against Reigning Champions
A Date With Destiny | Now Or Never For Leinster Against Reigning Champions
Leinster host Glasgow in a high-stakes URC semifinal. Can the holders upset the odds, or will Leinster end its knockout pain and reach Croke Park?
Third time lucky? Or another shellacking inbound?
This is the scenario facing Franco Smith’s Glasgow Warriors as they board their flight bound for Dublin.
Facing Leinster Rugby for the third time this season, and the second time in a knockout match, the reigning URC champions know they will need to raise their game significantly to keep their title defense alive.
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Quarterfinal 1 of the 2024-2025 URC season will decide whether the competition will be heading to South Africa for the fourth consecutive season.
Should Leinster Rugby punch its ticket to a first final since the introduction of the South African sides, the final will be held at the iconic Croke Park Stadium. Conversely, should the Warriors take the win, their route to the title once again will run through South Africa.
Currently trailing 65-5 in their season ledger against Leinster, the ascending Warriors know they will need to take yet another step forward if they are to target Leinster’s knockout insecurities.
With the cards laid bare for all to see, here is a preview of what is to come in Dublin on Saturday afternoon:
Team News
Leinster will be without star fullback Hugo Keenan for Saturday’s United Rugby Championship semifinal clash against the Glasgow Warriors at the Aviva Stadium (14:45 BST).
Keenan, recently named in the British and Irish Lions squad, misses out despite delivering a player-of-the-match performance in last week’s quarterfinal win over Scarlets.
His absence sees Jimmy O’Brien move to the No. 15 shirt, with Tommy O’Brien returning from injury to slot in on the right wing.
In the pack, Dan Sheehan returns at hooker in place of Ronan Kelleher, who drops to the bench, while Scott Penny comes in for the injured Josh van der Flier at openside flanker. Leinster also will be without influential duo Garry Ringrose and Tadhg Furlong.
For the visitors, Glasgow makes two changes from its impressive quarterfinal win over the Stormers.
Fin Richardson replaces Murphy Walker at tight-head prop, while Adam Hastings comes into the starting XV at fly-half, prompting a reshuffle that sees Tom Jordan move to inside center and Stafford McDowall named among the replacements.
The Warriors are dealing with a number of notable absentees themselves, including Huw Jones, Matt Fagerson, Jack Dempsey and Zander Fagerson.
Words From The Camp
Leinster senior coach Jacques Nienaber has underlined the significance of Saturday’s semifinal, describing it as a valuable test against the reigning champions.
“It’s a privilege for any team to be involved in the knockout stages,” Nienaber said. “It’s a privilege for us to be testing ourselves against Glasgow this weekend, the reigning champions, who obviously understand how to play knockout games, if you look at what they did last year. It’s a privilege to test ourselves against a quality side like that.”
Meanwhile, Glasgow head coach Franco Smith was full of praise for his opponents, recognizing Leinster as the benchmark in the competition.
“Leinster are the standard setters in this competition," he said. "They finished top of the standings for a reason and have consistently outperformed teams across the course of this season, while showing their strength in depth.
“It is a challenge that we know we will need to be at our best to meet, and the players are focused on the task at hand. Training this week has been sharp and competitive, with every player working hard for each other to put this squad in the best possible position for tomorrow afternoon.”
Key Matchup
In a fixture stacked with intriguing head-to-heads, none is more tantalizing than that of Jordie Barrett vs Sione Tuipulotu.
Arguably the two best inside centers in professional rugby in 2025, Barrett will be looking to ensure that this weekend’s clash is not his last in the Leinster shirt.
Certainly, when the All Blacks star signed with the Irish province on a six-month sabbatical, it was with the hopes of securing a Champions Cup title. Watching that ambition go up in flames as the Northampton Saints did a job on the men in blue in the semifinals, Barrett will be hellbent on securing a URC medal before returning home.
Facing him is a man who led his side to the title last season, albeit in the unfamiliar position of outside center, with Barrett’s countryman Tom Jordan slotting in at 12.
Regardless of the number on his back, Tuipulotu will no doubt be performing his usual duties as a key carrier and second distributor in the Warriors' backline.
Both players are blessed with special skills that not only make them lethal individually, but crucially bring out the best in those around them.
It is no coincidence that the Warriors' form took a significant uptick when their skipper returned from his long injury layoff.
Barrett, conversely, started his time in Dublin like a runaway train but has not been immune to the Champions Cup hangover of his teammates.
While he has missed their three consecutive finals losses, in no world would Barrett have believed that he would be benched for the semifinal shock that unfolded at the Aviva.
Both men will be key to their respective sides, both in how they organize the attack and how they nullify one another’s influence.
Prediction
In any other scenario where a team has swept by the other with an aggregate of 65-5, this fixture would be a no contest.
However, context is crucial here, and while the Warriors only mustered a try last time out in Dublin, they limited Leinster to a measly 13 points.
Crucially, had it not been for a few uncharacteristic errors, the Warriors had the potential to score at least two more tries.
Unlike any season gone by, Leinster is desperate for silverware, yet the vibes around camp feel more of a squad in mourning than one relishing the opportunity to put to rest some skeletons.
This general feeling was summed up by Leinster boss Leo Cullen begging fans to turn out in big numbers after a rather lacklustre showing for last weekend’s quarterfinal.
Glasgow, conversely, is bouncing into the semifinal on the back of a beatdown they put on former champions the DHL Stormers.
Drawing parallels to last season, where they beat the Stormers before going on the road to Ireland, winning a semifinal and then winning the final in South Africa, the Warriors no doubt will believe it already is written that they will retain their title.
Adding further obstacles to the Leinster path is a slew of injuries to key players, namely Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, Hugo Keenan, Josh van der Flier and captain Caelan Doris.
To sum up Saturday’s fixture, it will be dire desperation against a bubbling yet untested confidence.
Should Leinster lose yet another semifinal in this competition, it is impossible to see how sweeping changes will not be incoming.
Now is the time for the players to rediscover their dogged attitude, because if they don’t, the dust in the trophy cabinet will thicken.
Backs to the wall, we are giving Leinster a slight edge but without unwavering confidence. Leinster by 2.
Team Rosters
Leinster
Jimmy O'Brien; Tommy O'Brien, Jamie Osborne, Jordie Barrett, James Lowe; Sam Prendergast, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Thomas Clarkson, Joe McCarthy, James Ryan, Ryan Baird, Scott Penny, Jack Conan (capt)
Replacements: Ronan Kelleher, Jack Boyle, Rabah Slimani, RG Snyman, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, Ciaran Frawley
Glasgow
Josh McKay; Kyle Steyn (capt), Sione Tuipulotu, Tom Jordan, Kyle Rowe; Adam Hastings, George Horne; Jamie Bhatti, George Hiddleston, Fin Richardson, Alex Samuel, Scott Cummings, Euan Ferrie, Rory Darge, Henco Venter
Replacements: Johnny Matthews, Rory Sutherland, Sam Talakai, Max Williamson, Jack Mann, Macenzzie Duncan, Stafford McDowall, Jamie Dobie
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