Three Reasons Not To Panic If You're Ireland
Three Reasons Not To Panic If You're Ireland
Is the sky falling on Irish rugby? Here are three reasons why it's not.
Irish fans will need no reminding that last weekend's flop against England is unacceptable form to take into the World Cup.
Concerns will have surely risen surrounding Ireland's prospects in Japan this autumn, but don't count these guys out just yet. Let's not forget it was only nine months ago they took down the mighty All Blacks.
People can point to Ireland and say they're too predictable, they're too old, they peaked a year too early. While these assumptions aren't necessarily without reason, there are some caveats with judging Ireland so quickly.
US-based Subscribers can catch Ireland's next two test matches
LIVE and On-Demand here on FloRugby
1. No Johnny, big problem
First, the team played this weekend with its fourth-string flyhalf, Ross Byrne. While Byrne is a great plug-and-play option at the club level for Leinster, he's still too young and inexperienced to replace the reigning world player of the year in the test-match arena.
Watch Ireland play any game during the Joe Schmidt era, and it becomes clear that the Schmidt system is heavily dependent upon the playmaking of the flyhalf.
Whereas England play a simpler game based around the sheer power and running ability of its forwards, Ireland have to manufacture other ways to get over the gain line. England's Ford and Farrell are afforded front-foot ball without actually having to do much themselves.
The English forwards offer their backs an excellent platform to work with most of the time. Ireland, however, lack the ferocity in the forwards to just bash their way over the advantage line in the way that some of the other World Cup contenders do (like England, South Africa, and New Zealand.)
To compensate, the Irish use an ongoing structure of decoy runners and a bevy of receiving options off of their out-half (as they call it in Ireland) to get over the line. And that's where Johnny proves invaluable.
Sexton is one of the great distributors and deceivers of the past 20 years, and it's his ability to hold defenses and keep them guessing that allows his team to play fast rugby and run through the phases.
Think about it like a kid learning to ride a bicycle. At first it's really awkward and difficult for them to pedal without the bike tipping over. But once they get a few good pedals in, and the wheels start moving, the pedaling becomes much easier because the bike is already moving.
Johnny Sexton provides those first few awkward pedals for the Ireland attack by puncturing small holes in the defense with crisp passing and subtle usage of his eyes. His teammates run the lines and he picks the right one to get across the gainline against a set defense.
He gets the wheels rolling, and from there they are able to run their system and have the defense scrambling. With Byrne in there, the Ireland attack kept just tipping over before it could get rolling.
Additionally, Sexton is the primary field commander out there, offensively and defensively. Aside from his size and great tackling ability from the flyhalf position, Sexton also spots what the other team is trying to do and communicates what he sees to his team.
His impact is akin to the impact a quarterback has on his football team. He is the high tide that raises all ships, and there's a reason why Schmidt has kept him bubble-wrapped ahead of this year's World Cup.
People can point to Ireland's 2015 World Cup quarterfinal loss to Argentina and call it a failure. But what they will fail to point out is that Mr. Sexton did not play that game. He was injured in the final pool play game of that tournament, as Ireland swept their pool, going 4-0.
He is a massive ingredient to everything they do, and nobody on the team plays the same without him. To make his health even more important, his replacement Joey Carberry sustained an injury to Italy two weeks ago which could keep him out of the World Cup.
The plan is to preserve Johnny Sexton until the actual World Cup starts.
2. This wasn't Ireland's best side
Arguably the biggest issue on Saturday for the Irish was their ineptitude at the lineout. On countless occasions, hooker Rory Best was either picked off or just overthrew his lineout targets.
Realistically, Iain Henderson and Jean Kleyn should not run out in a starting lineup for Ireland this World Cup. The second row ought to be the Leinster duo of Devin Toner and James Ryan. The two have so much experience playing together, and their roles at set piece are invaluable for both Ireland and Leinster.
Toner is as surefire of a lineout target as you're going to get. Not only is he deceptive with his pre-throw movements and calls, but he also stands at 6-foot-10. His presence, like Sexton's, goes a long way towards getting Ireland on the front foot at set piece. He's another guy that gets those bicycle wheels rolling.
James Ryan, on the other hand, gets through about as much work as you're gonna see on a rugby pitch. The 23-year-old has been a week-in, week-out staple for both club and country for years now. He brings a craft and work rate beyond his years, and his ability too at set piece is vital for Ireland.
Outside of those two, Ireland could still stand to run out No. 8 Jack Conan in place of CJ Stander. This could allow Stander to move over to the blindside flank, and Peter O'Mahony to openside replacing Josh van der Flier, who is great for club but hasn't quite excelled on the international stage yet.
In the backline, veterans Robbie Henshaw and Keith Earls will also figure to start in big games. Some poor defensive decision making from Ireland's backline leaked in some awfully soft tries against England on Saturday, and these mistakes were entirely avoidable.
3. The players were fatigued
This would be the softest reason for the egg Ireland laid this weekend, but it is worth noting that the players were just coming off an intense week of training in Portugal.
The team's 34 missed tackles against England were uncharacteristic, and some have alluded to fatigue being a key factor to that stat.
This is not to say that England didn't outplay them in all facets of the game, but c'mon Ireland. When have those boys ever missed that many tackles in one game?
Well, after another week of recovery following their camp in Portugal and a week to go back to the drawing board, Ireland will have a chance for redemption this weekend against Wales.
The Welsh are dark horse candidates to lift the Webb Ellis Cup this autumn. If Ireland can put in a good shift against them in either one their two upcoming tests, it will do a lot for their confidence moving forward.
Yes, Ireland have much work to do before the World Cup starts this September. But no, the sky is not falling on Irish rugby.
The men in green can certainly turn it around with the returns of the world player of the year, the rest of the supporting cast, and some fresh legs.